MMRecap for February 2nd The final week of January was loaded with reports: some good, some not so good. But there were no reports last Monday. Stocks closed up on Monday, although the gains were minimal. The Dow gained 6.10 points, the Nasdaq was up by 13.88 points and the S&P 500 inched up 5.27 points. The 10-year Treasury yield bumped up 2 basis points to close at 1.83%. On Tuesday there were several disappointing reports. Durable goods didn’t come close to meeting expectations. Sales of durables, expensive items meant to last three or more years, were down 3.4%; and durables excluding transportation (planes, trains and automobiles) dropped 0.8% -- far below estimates and a huge disappointment for the markets. The Case-Shiller 20-city index of November housing prices in the nation’s 20 largest cities fell to 4.3%, but didn’t miss the previous mark of 4.5% by much. One would think a 102.9 reading on January consumer confidence would lift the markets, considering that it was almost 10 points higher than in December, but this was not the case. New home sales in December jumped to an annual rate of 481K, beating both the prior month and the projected estimates. In addition, Caterpillar experienced a decline in construction in China, which sent 4thquarter profits down 25% from a year ago. These reports and others had a negative effect on Wall Street. The closing numbers for Tuesday were horrible. The Dow slid 291.49 points, or 1.65%. The Nasdaq fell by 90.27 points, or 1.89%, and the S&P 500 dropped 27.54 points, or 1.34%. Surprisingly, the 10-year yield remained the same and closed at 1.83%. Wednesday the only news was the FOMC rate decision, which wasn’t news at all. The Fed funds rate remains at 0.25%, a level that has been unchanged since December, 2008. Wall Street had another exciting day, if you call losing your shirt in the middle of winter exciting. All of the indices were down again. The Dow dove 195.84 points, or 1.13%. The Nasdaq dropped 43.50 points, or 0.93%, and the S&P 500 went down by 27.39 points, or 1.35%. The 10-year yield also went down by 10 basis points to finish the day at 1.73%. On Thursday jobless claims took the spotlight, and with good reason. Both initial claims and continuing claims fell sharply from the previous week. Initial claims for the week ended Jan. 24 were down to 265K -- compared to the 308K from the week before. Continuing claims for the week ended Jan. 17 were down by 71K, dropping from 2456K to 2385K. Pending home sales was the only disappointing report. They were down 3.7% from the prior 0.6% increase. All of the stock indices rallied on Thursday. When the final bell rang, the Dow was up 225.48 points, or 1.31%, the Nasdaq gained 45.41 points, or 0.98%, and the S&P 500 went up by 19.09 points, or 0.95%. The 10-year treasury yield went up a bit to close at 1.77%. Friday was the big day. First on the docket was Q4 GDP. This report stunned everyone when it came in at 5.0% in December. Unfortunately, that was a one-time wonder, compared with the actual 2.6% result. Estimates were at 3.2%. The other three reports varied in importance. The Q4 employment cost index (ECI) came in at 0.6%, which was just a hair under the previous 0.7% reading. The final two reports were pretty much on target. The Chicago PMI (purchasing managers’ index) jumped to 59.4 from 58.8, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment report for January posted a 98.1 -- close to expectations. When the markets closed on Friday, however,all of the gains made on Thursday were lost. The Dow retreated 251.90 points, or 1.45%. It closed the week at 17,164.95. The Nasdaq slid 48.17 points, or 1.03%, and the S&P 500 dropped 26.26 points, or 1.30%. The 10-year treasury dropped to 1.68%, the lowest since May of 2013. One would think that after the volume of reports we had last week, this week would be a piece of cake. Not so. There are 26 reports lined up and waiting, but not all of them, of course, are market movers. Today starts off with personal income, personal spending, the PCE prices-Core, the ISM manufacturing index, and construction spending. Personal income for December is forecasted to be around 0.3%, a slight decrease from the 0.4% previously reported. Personal spending for December is estimated to decline by 0.2% compared with the 0.6% from the prior report. The PCE Core prices, which measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services (minus food and energy prices) is expected to remain flat at 0.0%. In other words, inflation is non-existent at the moment. The ISM index on manufacturing in January should come in at about 55% -- close to its previous posting. Construction spending in December, however, is expected to hit 0.8% or 0.9% versus the previous -0.3% reading. The only significant report tomorrow is factory orders in December, which could be worse than in November when they came in at -0.7%. On Wednesday, feedback on employment changes began to filter in from the ADP payroll data for January. The report for December came in at 241K. The market forecasters are predicting 230K for January, and the Briefing.com guys are predicting 250K. This will be followed by ISM services, which looks at activities in the service sector, e.g., hotels, restaurants and other service businesses. It has held steady at 56.5 and should continue to stay about the same. Thursday we get the reports on initial and continuing jobless claims. Initial claims for the week ended January 31 are expected to go up to possibly 300K. This is a good-sized jump from the previous week’s total of 265K. Continuing claims for the week ended January 24 might decrease somewhat to 2375 from 2385. Next we jump to the trade balance for December. It came in below $40B ($39B to be more exact) for the first time in several years in November. The market analysts expect a repeat in December although the Briefing.com analysts are predicting a balance in the neighborhood of $43.0B. The final reports on Thursday are on productivity and unit labor costs for Q4. On Friday we get the non-farm payroll report which is predicted to go down from 252K to 235K for January. The unemployment report is expected to be unchanged at 5.6% nationally. The last report of the week addresses consumer credit for December. It is likely to show an increase in consumer credit debt for the month, which is consistent with holiday shopping. The number could go from $14.1B in November, to $16.0B in December.

By Appointment: 7150 E Camelback Rd., Ste 444 Scottsdale, AZ 85251 taum@marketlinemortgage.com www.marketlinemortgage.com P: 480-967-8286 C: 480-797-4898 TF: 877-967-8286 F: 866-699-1939 BK#0911893 NMLS#1842 #3950 OR LO#51267

Realtors' Lender of Choice!

Copyright 2008 The Daily Communicator

It’s Time to Think About Refinancing Your Mortgage

JAN. 20, 2015

The bond market is a complicated thing, and it is understandable if most people don’t spend a lot of time thinking about it. But even for Americans who don’t want to spend any mental energy on yield curves, convexity and term premia, there is one simple thing to know about the current tumult in the multitrillion dollar market: It’s time to think about refinancing your mortgage.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.8 percent at the end of last week. That is down from 4.5 percent as recently as last spring, the lowest since May 2013 and far below the 5 percent-plus rates that prevailed as recently as early 2011.

That raises the possibility that the great American refinancing machine might again chug into motion, leaving Americans with lower monthly payments, more cash in their pockets or both. Homeowners who secured their current mortgage in late 2013 or early 2014, or anytime before mid-2011, may want to at least plug their numbers into an online calculator to see if the potential savings are worthwhile.

Photo

A driver preparing to deliver heating oil to a home in Portland, Me., last week. Falling oil prices have been a boon to consumers in obvious ways, but also in less obvious ones. One result: falling interest rates, which can mean lower housing costs. Credit Robert F. Bukaty/Associated Press

The math can be as simple as you want or as complex; here’s how to think of the decision.

When considering whether to refinance, you are exploiting the fact that you can fully repay a home mortgage whenever you want and take out a new one. If rates rise, you can stick with your old one as long as you continue to own your home; if they fall, you can pay off the old mortgage and get a new one. Heads you win, tails your lender loses. Seldom in life does this dynamic apply, so it is worth exploiting whenever the opportunity arises.

Everyone’s details are different, but if the current rate is half a percentage point below the rate on your mortgage, a refinance is potentially compelling. If it is closer to a gap of a full percentage point, it may be a slam dunk unless you expect to move soon.

But taking out a new mortgage comes with costs, such as origination and appraisal fees — typically in the low four figures. The open question is whether you will enjoy the benefits of lower rates for long enough to cover that upfront cost.

As a hypothetical, a family that took out a $400,000, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in June 2013 at 4.6 percent could save $187 a month by refinancing $400,000 at a 3.8 percent rate. (If instead of taking cash out they borrowed only the $389,826 they should owe on the mortgage at this point, they would save $234 a month, reflecting both the lower interest rate and a smaller principal.)

Mortgage Rates Have Fallen Sharply

With mortgage rates at their lowest levels since May 2013, homeowners may want to explore refinancing options.

Average rate on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage

%

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

3.8%

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Grayed-in areas indicate times when prevailing rates were at least half a percentage point higher than current rates; those with mortgages issued during those times may want to look into refinancing.

Source: Bankrate.com, via Bloomberg

Before taking the plunge, though, our family has to decide how long it expects to stay in the home. If transaction fees add up to $4,000, for example, the family needs to stay in the home for at least 21 more months (if borrowing $400,000; 17 months if borrowing $389,826) to justify the transaction (or a bit longer if you also try to account for the tax savings they are not receiving because they are paying less to the bank in mortgage interest).

Or here’s another intriguing possibility. Let’s say our family has seen its income rise since originally taking out the home loan in mid-2013. The interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is now a mere 2.9 percent. An option would be to refinance the $389,825 currently owed into a 15-year mortgage. That would increase the monthly payment by $623 a month — but would result in paying the home loan off entirely in 2030, not 2043 as the family was previously on track to do.

As with all major financial decisions, the details of each family’s situation can add all kinds of complexity that are worth gaming out and analyzing carefully. But for the economy as a whole, this latest shift in rates has a particular silver lining.

In years past, mortgage rates have dipped when it looked as if the United States economy could be falling back toward recession, and the Federal Reserve intervened with easier money to try to stop that from happening. This time, the economy is looking relatively strong and the Fed is making plans to raise interest rates.

This drop in mortgage rates is being driven by a combination of plummeting oil prices, which are reducing investors’ expectations for inflation in the years ahead, and a tumultuous global economic environment, which is leading investors worldwide to plow money into safe American assets. That includes the bonds packaged by the government-sponsored mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which in turn fund most of the nation’s consumer mortgages.

In other words, global investors are so desperate for a safe place to park cash and so confident that inflation is nowhere to be found that they are flinging money at United States homeowners. Americans now paying significantly above-market rates on their home loan might at least do them the favor of picking it up.

www.nytimes.com
by Neil Irwin

Saving for a Home: How Much Is Enough?

Shutterstock

It's easy to get caught up in credit scores when considering a home purchase. But as lenders continue to loosen requirements, the need to have money in the bank doesn't get any less acute. Getting prescriptive about how much you need in savings to satisfy a mortgage lender is tough business. The answer can depend on a host of factors, from the type of mortgage and size of the loan to the property itself and more.

You'll most likely need a solid chunk of change upfront to cover a down payment and closing costs. Lenders might also want to see a stockpile of "reserves," which often translates to a certain number

Buyers are putting down an average of 20 percent for conventional loans and 5 percent for FHA loans.

of months' worth of mortgage payments. The bottom line is that it's tough to talk specifics about your bottom line. That's why it's important to get a solid understanding of your mortgage options and seek clear guidance from lenders.

Credit scores are critical, but so are income and assets when you're applying for a home loan. Here are some of the important savings you'll need to accumulate first.

Down Payment Needs: Down payments are inescapable for the vast majority of non-cash homebuyers. Outside of state or local programs, only government-backed VA and USDA rural development home loans allow qualified borrowers to purchase with no money down. Conventional and FHA loans typically require minimum down payments of 5 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. On a $200,000 mortgage, that's $10,000 for conventional and $7,000 down for FHA. But buyers often put even more skin in the game.

Conventional borrowers last month had an average loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent, according to mortgage software firm Ellie Mae. For FHA loans, it was 95 percent. That means buyers are putting down an average of 20 percent for conventional loans and 5% for FHA loans.

Existing homeowners often have an advantage because they're able to put the proceeds of a home sale toward a new purchase. It can take first-time buyers years to scrape together enough money for a down payment.

That's partly why home sales among first-time buyers hit their lowest point last month since the National Association of Realtors began tracking the figure in October 2008.

Reserves: Paying the upfront costs of homebuying represents one pool of money. Lenders want to make sure you've got plenty left over to keep the monthly payments rolling in long after closing day.

One way they hedge risk is by requiring a certain amount of reserves. Guidelines can vary by lender, loan type and borrower. One month of reserves is usually equal to your monthly mortgage payment, including property taxes and insurance.

Conventional lenders typically seek from two to six months of reserves, but it could be as many as a year's worth, depending on your risk factors.

Neither FHA nor VA loans have a reserve requirement for single-family homes. But purchasing multi-unit properties under these programs typically requires three to six months' worth of reserves. Reserve requirements will also vary for jumbo loans.

A healthy amount of reserves can help homebuyers on the edge. Lenders can consider these assets as a positive compensating factor, which can help a spotty loan file overcome credit or debt issues and help the mortgage process move along faster.

Residual Income: Lenders will take a close look at the ratio of your major monthly debts against your gross monthly income. This is known as debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, and different loan programs have different requirements. Money-wise, it's not just the income stream some borrowers need to worry about.

Some lenders and loan types may require you to have a certain amount of money left over each month after paying major expenses. The VA loan program has pioneered this requirement, known as residual income. VA borrowers must meet a monthly residual income benchmark that can vary based on where you live and your family size.

For example, a family of five in the Northeast needs at least $1,062 left over each month after paying those major bills (think mortgage, student loan, child care). The FHA recently adopted the VA's residual income requirement as a test for borrowers with higher debt-to-income ratios. The change takes effect in late April.

Residual income doesn't necessarily represent funds you need to earmark for savings. But knowing how to budget and save are key traits of successful homeowners. While you save for a home loan, it's important to make sure you're maintaining or building good credit so you can qualify for the best rate possible. You can pull free credit reports every year from each of the major credit reporting agencies to see your full credit history. Also, the Credit Report Card is a free tool that gives you two of your credit scores and a breakdown of what's impacting your scores.

By Chris Birk
www.realestate.aol.com   

A Good Start to 2015


A strong Jobs Report raised hopes of a stronger economy to start 2015. According to Labor Department figures released in December, employers added 321,000 jobs in November, the most in one month since January 2012. New job creations for September and October were also revised higher. The unemployment rate stood at 5.8 percent, which was unchanged from October but down from 7 percent one year ago.

In early December, the Wall Street Journal reported that wage growth, which has been slow during the recovery, is accelerating. "This is another sign that says we’re taking off," said Beth Ann Bovino, the U.S. Chief Economist at Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services. As more people find work and income stability or income growth, the housing industry will likely benefit. Stay tuned to see how the Federal Reserve will react as the economy improves.

The housing market is ending the year better off than a year ago. Revised figures from October, as reported by the National Association of REALTORS^® (NAR), showed that pending home sales fell 1.1 percent from an upwardly revised September reading, but were still 2.2 percent higher than this time last year. The inventory of homes for sale was also 5 percent higher in October than a year ago.

Sales of existing homes also rose in October to the highest level in a year, as home price gains continue to ease. Home loan rates are still hovering near historic lows.

Good "Starts" for the Year
A good sign for new home construction in early 2015: in October of last year, builders were granted 4.8 percent more permits to break ground—the highest amount in six years. Total starts of single-family houses also advanced 4.2 percent annually in October to 696,000, according to the Commerce Department. While total housing starts fell 1.6 percent in November, the number of approved permits for new construction provides an optimistic start to the new year.

The Bottom Line
Rates are still at advantageous annual lows. If you have any questions regarding housing or know of friends, family or colleagues who are renting and wish to discuss buying a home this year, please get in touch. 

By Taum Hemmingsen
Marketline Mortgage

Money Market Recap & Forecast

Money Market Recap and Forecast

MMRecap for January 5th Last week was a bad one for stocks. Fortunately, there were only three days featuring economic reports due to schedule changes brought about by the holidays. Monday there were no economic reports, but MarketWatch, an economic news site, reported that employers are unlikely to release current employees. This, in turn, should lead to a stronger labor market and increased economic growth, but the markets remained oblivious. Tuesday was a little livelier, but the results were disappointing. The Case-Shiller report on home prices in the nation’s 20 largest cities showed October prices dipped to 4.5% from 4.8% the previous month. However, consumer confidence rose to 92.6 -- from its 88.7 in December. The 10-year Treasury went down a couple of basis points, closing at 2.20%. There were a few reports on Wednesday starting with the weekly jobless claims. For the week ended on December 27, the initial jobless claims went up to 298K, a sharp rise from the 281K claims from the week before. The Chicago PMI decreased a bit in December, registering a 58.3. This was down from 60.8 in November. Pending home sales seemed to do well in November showing a 0.8% rise, compared to a 1.1% decline from the month before. On Wednesday the traders at all of the indices decided to take their year-end profits and sell. The 10-year Treasury note dropped three more points to end the day at 2.17%. Markets were, of course, closed New Year’s Day, and to no one’s surprise, nothing much happened on Friday. The 10-Treasury note waved goodbye to 2014 with a smile. It closed at 2.12%! There was no report from the MBA last week, but they’ll be back on the job this Wednesday. After a light week last week, this week has many reports, but none to speak of for today. Tomorrow, however, we get factory orders for November, which are expected to come in at -0.3% -- better than the previous -0.7%. It will be followed by the ISM index on the service sector for December, which should come in a tad above 58.5. We will also get the employment change report from ADP, the payroll processing giant. They expect 245K to be added to the work force versus 208K in December. Wednesday is a relatively light day; the only report that might move the markets will be the FOMC minutes for the week ended December 17th. We’re back to a normal schedule with the initial and continuing jobless claims reports coming out on Thursday. The forecasters are expecting continuing claims to go up a bit for the week ended December 27, with a prediction of 2375K. This compares to 2353K from the week before. This might be due to the end of seasonal work for 2014. Initial claims for the week ended on January 3 might go down to 290K, which would be an improvement from the 298K reported the previous week. On Thursday we also get the consumer credit report for November. Not surprisingly, consumer credit is expected to hit $16.0B, up from $13.2B in October. In a sense, this is a good sign that people were a little more confident as we went into the holiday season. On Friday the nonfarm payrolls report for December will be released. Analysts are looking for 240K workers to have been added. This compares with 321K jobs added in November. The unemployment rate report follows and is expected to hold at 5.8%. A Happy and Prosperous New Year to all!

By Appointment: 7150 E Camelback Rd., Ste 444 Scottsdale, AZ 85251 taum@marketlinemortgage.com www.marketlinemortgage.com P: 480-967-8286 C: 480-797-4898 TF: 877-967-8286 F: 866-699-1939 BK#0911893 NMLS#1842 #3950 OR LO#51267

Realtors' Lender of Choice!

Copyright 2008 The Daily Communicator

Don't Wait For a Foreclosure to Get a Loan Modification

One of the most common misconceptions homeowners have is that you need to be on the verge of foreclosure to be able to apply for a loan modification. This is simply not true. Basically, what a loan modification does is adjust your monthly mortgage payment in accordance with your present financial circumstance. Also, a modified loan may entail a reduction in the interest rate, thereby making your monthly mortgage payment more affordable.





If there’s anything to be learned from the recession it’s that financial conditions can change at any time. Several hardship reasons can put a strain on a family’s or individual’s finances, prompting homeowners to seek a loan modification. They don’t necessarily need to be at risk of losing their homes to qualify for a modified loan.

For homeowners who have received a notice of foreclosure, getting a mortgage modification may be crucial to save the property. But time is essential. By law, lending services are required to give several months’ notice before foreclosing on a home. Applying for a modified loan early on is the best option because lenders need sufficient time to evaluate the case whether to approve it or not.
In the event of a foreclosure, a borrower can still apply for a mortgage modification at any point during the process. But there’s no guarantee that it can save the property on time. So borrowers need to act quickly and study their options.

Aside from a loan modification, they can also avail of a deed in lieu of foreclosure, a short sale or a forbearance agreement. Typically, a lender can postpone the upcoming foreclosure sale if some kinds of assistance have been applied for. Again, however, it may take several days for the application to be placed in the system. In any case, it is best to be knowledgeable about any updates about modification of loan and other alternatives to protect your best interests.

By  Eric  Smith
http://business-financialrange.com/?p=1687 

Top 5 Benefits of Using a Professional to Buy a Home

Every year the National Association of REALTORS releases their Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers, in which they reveal the results of a yearlong survey of buyers and sellers. The latest profile revealed what actual buyers saw as the benefits of using an agent during the home buying process.

 

Here are the Top 5:

 

#1: Helped the Buyer Understand the Process

Whether it is your first time purchasing a home, or you’re an experienced buyer, there are over 230 possible actions that need to happen during every successful real estate transaction.
Having someone to guide you through the process who can simply explain what is going on at every step of the way was sited as the top benefit by 63% of all buyers (that number jumped to 83% with first time buyers).

#2: Pointed Out Unnoticed Features/Faults with the Property

When you start the process of buying a home, you may be too excited to see each potential home for what it is, good and bad. An experienced professional can help you realize the potential hidden gems or risks before you make an offer.  Nearly 60% of all buyers listed this as a major benefit of hiring a professional.

#3: Improved the Buyer’s Knowledge of Search Areas

Whether you are looking to relocate to a new state, or just across town, having someone who knows the neighborhoods in which you are looking can be an invaluable asset.

#4: Negotiated Better Sales Contract Terms/Better Price

 

In today’s market, hiring a talented negotiator could save you thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of dollars. Each step of the way – from the original offer, to the possible renegotiation of that offer after a home inspection, to the possible cancellation of the deal based on a troubled appraisal – you need someone who can keep the deal together until it closes.

#5: Provided a better list of service providers

A great agent has relationships with mortgage professionals, home inspectors, appraisers and other experts that you will need in securing your dream home.

 

Bottom Line

If you are considering purchasing a home, whether as a first-time or move up buyer, sit down with a local experienced real estate professional in your area and see what they have to offer.

by The KCM Crew  

on November 25, 2014 in For Buyers

Money Market Recap

MMRecap for December 15th There were no economic reports released last Monday, but the price of oil and its effect on oil-producing countries grabbed headlines. So has the question of “to frack or not to frack?” Now that oil is cheap, many oil companies are deserting fracking and just continuing to drill. The yield on the 10-year note was down 0.05 points to close at 2.26%. Tuesday was another “report-less” day -- almost. Wholesale inventories for October came in at +0.4%, the same as in September. But the talk on Wall Street centered on oil and the various effects it can have on the environment as well as on the economies of heavy users of the product. There is little good news available. The Russian ruble has lost 40% of its value vs. the U.S. dollar. It is also troubled by Western sanctions, declining oil prices and high inflation. There are no easy answers. The 10-year yield had dropped four more points to close at 2.22%. How can this be? Wednesday was yet another day with no meaningful reports! But the price of oil has taken another huge hit, and that’s as much news as we need to know for now. It’s the sole topic of conversation, no matter where you look. The price of oil rose $0.28 a barrel, and the 10-year note fell by 4 basis points to 2.18%. On Thursday there were finally some economic reports worth talking about. Initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 6 fell to 294K from 297K -- a scant 3,000 when compared to previous decreases. However, continuing claims, people applying for a second or more weeks of benefits, for the week ended Nov. 29 jumped to 2514K from the previous 2372K. The best news came from retail sales in November, which rose 0.7%. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.5%. That’s a relief after a couple of months of grim data. The importance of other reports went downhill from there. Import and export prices both fell, with exports down 1.2%, excluding agriculture. Imports, excluding oil, fell 0.2%. The 10-year Treasury added one basis point to close at a very friendly 2.19%. The week concluded Friday with the producer price indices and the first of two consumer sentiment reports from the University of Michigan. The PPI for November fell 0.2%. Nothing says “no inflation” like a minus sign. The PPI core, which excludes food and energy prices, came in flat, versus a 0.4% increase in October. The final report from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report came in at 93.8, topping not only the previous report of 88.8 but the estimates, as well. The 10-year Treasury dropped to the lowest point of the year so far, and closed at 2.10%. The MBA reported a significant decline of mortgage applications for November with new home applications decreasing by 22% over October. Interestingly, higher-priced new homes seem to be doing better than the lower-priced entry-level homes as the average loan size increased from $300,000 in October to almost $307,000 in November. Conventional loans, including refinances, accounted for 69.3% of all loan applications. This week is a relatively quiet week as far as reports go. The Empire State Manufacturing index is the first report released today, and there is some discrepancy on the predictions. That will be followed by industrial production and capacity utilization reports for November. Both should rise, with production expected to hit somewhere between 0.7% and 0.9% in November -- up from -0.1% in October. The Home-builders’ index report is expected to remain flat at 58% in December, but after all, it’s December. Tuesday we get to the nitty-gritty with housing starts for November. Analysts expect a reading of 1035K, up from the previous 1009K. Building permits for November may come in lower than the 1080K for October, as the predictions are hovering around 1050K. On Wednesday we’ll look at consumer price indices, but they have barely moved. In October, the CPI was flat, coming in at 0.0%, and is expected to drop perhaps to -0.1% for November. The CPI core, which eliminates food and energy prices, may drop a little, as well. As usual, Thursday the reports on initial and continuing unemployment figures come out. The Philly Fed report will be released on Thursday, and here there is a big chasm among the predictors. The previous report came in at 40.8. The markets are predicting a drop to 26.5, while the Briefing.com guys are predicting a major drop to 10.0. Either way, that seems to be a big decrease. As we approach the last two weeks of the year, the reports are slowing down and there are no reports coming out on Friday. This is a good opportunity to take advantage of all those door-buster sales.

By Appointment: 7150 E Camelback Rd., Ste 444 Scottsdale, AZ 85251 taum@marketlinemortgage.com www.marketlinemortgage.com P: 480-967-8286 C: 480-797-4898 TF: 877-967-8286 F: 866-699-1939 BK#0911893 NMLS#1842 #3950 OR LO#51267

Realtors' Lender of Choice!

Copyright 2008 The Daily Communicator

More Homebuying Options to Come in 2015


The number of first-time homeowners reached its lowest level in three decades.

According to an annual survey of homebuyers by the National Association of REALTORS^® (NAR), only 33 percent of total purchases this year were by first-timers, down from 38 percent a year ago. The long-term average, dating back to 1981, shows that 4 out of 10 purchases were by first-time buyers.

The reason? "Rising rents and repaying student loan debt makes saving for a down payment more difficult, especially for young adults who've experienced limited job prospects and flat wage growth since entering the workforce," said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist. He added that a shortage of homes in affordable price ranges, competition from investors, tighter credit conditions and high mortgage insurance premiums provided additional bumps in the road.

However, recent announcements from the two biggest housing agencies, Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FHLMC), may help this number in the coming year.

Proposed Lending Changes to Encourage Homebuying
In mid-October, changes were proposed by the two government-regulated housing agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. While the agencies don’t directly lend money to consumers, they do buy mortgages made by banks and other financial institutions, which frees up money to lend to more homebuyers. According to a Wall Street Journal report, the proposed changes include looser credit guidelines as well as the possibility for a 3 percent down payment option when buying a home. Stay tuned as the details become clearer in the first quarter of 2015.

This is good news for people in markets where rents are skyrocketing more than they can keep up, and for prospective buyers who had been unable to buy before.

The Bottom Line
Rates are still at advantageous annual lows. If you have any questions regarding housing or know of friends, family or colleagues who are renting and wish to discuss buying a home next year, please get in touch.

By Taum Hemmingsen

Money Market Recap & Forecast

MMRecap for December 8th Thanksgiving break is definitely over. Now it’s time to get serious again, as there were 19 relevant economic reports last week. Monday’s lone report was the ISM index, which looks at the health of the manufacturing industry across the country. It came in at 58.7, which was not only close to estimates but very close to October’s 59.0. Otherwise, real news was scant. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose 4 basis points to 2.22%. Only three reports appeared on Tuesday’s calendar, and just one could influence the markets -- construction spending in October. It shot up 1.1%, beating the -0.1% tallied in September, as well as all estimates. When Treasuries closed, the yield on the 10-year note had risen 6 basis points to a still-low 2.28%. Wednesday there were several releases, but no real market-changers. The yield on the 10-year Treasury went up a point to close at 2.29%. On Thursday, initial and continuing jobless claims were released. First-time claims for the week ended November 29 were down by 17K, registering 297K compared with 314K from the prior week. Continuing claims recorded for the week ended November 22 actually went up to 2362K, which was a good-sized jump from the 2323K from the week before. The other piece of financial news on Thursday: the European Central Bank is delaying the start of its quantitative easing program (if it starts at all) until it further studies the impact of falling oil prices and other economic factors that could affect European growth and wages. Don’t look for a statement about this until at least March. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 4 points to close at 2.25%. Friday’s employment reports for November were an early holiday present for just about everyone. Nonfarm payrolls added 321K jobs in November, and the unemployment rate held at 5.8%, the lowest since 2008. Hourly earnings were up 0.4%. The 10-year Treasury yield closed last week at 2.31%, up 6 basis points from Thursday. This week is a relatively quiet one, and market-moving reports don’t start coming in until Thursday. There are no reports today, and the only significant release coming out tomorrow is the report on wholesale inventories for October, which are expected to rise 0.2%. This is not a market mover. Wednesday, too, is practically a non-event, but the fun starts Thursday with several reports rolling in. As always, we get the initial and continuing jobless claims reports. Initial claims for the week ended December 6 may drop by 2K; the analysts are predicting this report to come in at 295K. Continuing claims are predicted to come in at 2350K, about 12,000 less than the 2362K from the previous week. November retail sales and retail sales excluding autos are also scheduled for Thursday. Expectations range from gains of 0.4% to 0.7%, and contain some of the most important data for November. So far it’s been disappointing, but these numbers could increase expectations. Retail sales ex-auto could come in anywhere from +0.2% to +0.5%. Export and import prices in November are also on tap, but they almost never surprise. Business inventories follow, and they fall in the same category. If inflation were to edge up a couple of points, you wouldn’t hear many complaints. Two reports on producer price indices at the manufacturing level are due Friday, and many would like to see them rise just a bit. This is one area where higher prices would be welcomed. The final report for the week is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, which attempts to determine the moods of those surveyed. If they feel confident about their financial futures for the next several months, the numbers will be in the high 80s or even the low 90s. Anything below that would be a disappointment. The sentiment for November was 88.8. So, all in all, nothing very exciting is expected this week.

By Appointment: 7150 E Camelback Rd., Ste 444 Scottsdale, AZ 85251 taum@marketlinemortgage.com www.marketlinemortgage.com P: 480-967-8286 C: 480-797-4898 TF: 877-967-8286 F: 866-699-1939 BK#0911893 NMLS#1842 #3950 OR LO#51267

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Copyright 2008 The Daily Communicator

Money Market Recap and Forecast

MMRecap for November 24th Last week we had a marathon of 17 economic reports released. Monday kicked off with November’s New York Empire State Manufacturing index. The index rose to 10.2. Not bad, considering that the previous report came in at 6.2. Twin reports, industrial production and capacity utilization, both disappointed. Production fell 0.1% from the +0.8% from the prior report, while capacity utilization edged down to 78.9% from 79.2. When the markets closed, results were mixed, with no big winners or losers. The yield on the 10-year note rose 2 basis points to close at 2.34%. On Tuesday the producer price index came out, and we actually saw some movement in October. It rose 0.2% from -0.1% in September. The PPI core, which eliminates food and energy prices, also moved up to 0.4% from 0.0%. The final report came from the NAHB; its index jumped to 58 from 54 in October. That was good news. Wednesday was a relatively calm day, as only two reports were published -- building permits and housing starts for October. Housing starts fell to an annual rate of 1009K, likely weather-related. This was down from the 1038K starts in September. Building permits had a more impressive result, as they jumped to an annual rate of 1080K -- an increase of 49,000 units from September. There were no expectations regarding Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, but it sounded like it might have gotten a little dicey. The whole idea behind QE2 was to lower interest rates as well as lowering the percentage of unemployed. Low interest rates did perk up the economy, but the unemployment rate has a ways to go, and some FOMC members seem to feel the cut off was premature. Either way, the Fed will make rate hikes in the future -- likely beginning in 2015. Thursday featured seven reports, all close to predictions. First-time jobless claims for the week ended Nov.15 led off at 291K, 2,000 fewer claims than the previous week. Continuing claims fell by 73K to come in at 2330K for the week ended November 8. Consumer price indices for October followed. The bare-bones CPI dipped to 0% from 0.1% in September. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which eliminates food and gas prices, edged up 0.2% from 0.1% the previous month. Still no inflation worries here! The next report showed existing home sales jumping to a higher-than-expected annual rate of 5.26M units in October; that’s 80,000 homes sold. If the Philly Fed Index was like any other report, it would have set the markets on fire. It is an important report concerning manufacturing in the eastern seaboard area, but it’s not in the same class as Chicago, for instance. However, in November the index rose to 40.8 from 20.7. This is a very notable increase which shows that manufacturers are humming along. This is a good sign for the economy. The final report for the week was leading economic indicators for October. It rose to 0.9% from 0.7%, but it has zero impact on the market. There were no economic reports issued Friday, but there was news that sent stocks to record highs, again. The feared recession in Japan is now a reality, but a surprise rate cut by China’s central bank, the first in more than two years, sent the European markets up; the U.S. markets followed. Despite the short Thanksgiving week, there are several reports being released. No reports come out today, and tomorrow we have just a few, starting with the second estimate of the Q3 GDP. The markets expect that report to come in at 3.3%, while the briefing forecasters are thinking more along the line of 3.0%. This compares with the 3.5% reported from the prior report issue. Next in line is the Case-Shiller 20 city index for September. The prognosticators are expecting a slight downturn in this number to anywhere between 4.2% and 4.6% compared with the 5.6% that was reported previously. We also get the consumer confidence report, which is looking good right now. The report is expected to show our confidence level rising to 96.0 in November, up from 94.5 from October. Wednesday we’ll get some reports that normally come out on Thursday, in addition to Wednesday’s reports. We’ll start the day with the initial and the continuing jobless claims reports. Initial claims are expected to go down, a result of temporary employment during the holiday shopping season. It is anticipated that initial claims will be at 285K for the week ended November 22, down from the 291K the week before. Continuing claims may go up to 2350K for the week ended on November 15, compared to the 2330K the week prior. The durable orders report for October is next. A 0.7% decrease is expected. This follows a 1.3% decrease in September, so it’s a little bit better. The durable goods ex-transportation report follows and is expected to show an increase to 0.3%, which is better than the -0.2% decrease from the previous report. The personal income report for October looks like we might be making a little more money. The forecasters are predicting this number to rise between 0.4% and 0.5%, compared to 0.2% from the prior statement. Personal spending is also predicted to be on the upswing, showing that we might be spending as much as 3% more in October. The Chicago PMI report comes out next and covers November. This report might be a little less than the previous report, coming in around 65.0 compared with the 66.2. Continuing on Wednesday, the final University of Michigan sentiment report for November is released. Only minor changes are expected, as the report might come in at 90.5 versus the 89.4 on the previous report. The next announcement is on new home sales for October. There’s a huge discrepancy in predictions from the “experts.” The markets are anticipating an increase to 469K over the 467K from September, while the briefing forecasters are predicting a major decrease to 450K new homes sold. It’ll be interesting to see the actual result here. Pending home sales also demonstrate another discrepancy between forecasters. The markets would like to see pending home sales up by 0.8% while the briefing guys are thinking more like 0.5%. Still, these numbers are an improvement from the 0.3% last reported. We want to wish all of you a Happy Thanksgiving. Be safe!

By Appointment: 7150 E Camelback Rd., Ste 444 Scottsdale, AZ 85251 taum@marketlinemortgage.com www.marketlinemortgage.com P: 480-967-8286 C: 480-797-4898 TF: 877-967-8286 F: 866-699-1939 BK#0911893 NMLS#1842 #3950 OR LO#51267

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Copyright 2008 The Daily Communicator

MMRecap for November 3rd Last Monday was a relatively quiet day, with only September pending home sales released. They rose 0.3%, which was better than the previous -1.0% decline; it was, however, far short of expectations, which ranged from 0.5% to 1.0%. Although the Dow gained 12.53 points, that was about as good as it got. The Nasdaq closed up 2.22 points, and the S&P 500 fell 2.95 points. The 10-year Treasury slid to 2.27%. Tuesday gave us the report on durable goods; it came in far better than the previous report of -18.3%. This report showed durable goods down only by -1.3%, a disappointing number when compared to the hopes of the forecasters that durable goods sales would improve by 0.5% or 0.6%. Orders for durable goods ex-transportation fell -0.2% on this report, far lower than the 0.7% from the prior report. Case-Shiller reported that home sale prices rose 5.6% for the month of August. This was slightly down from the 6.7% rise in prices from July. We also had the consumer confidence report for October that came out Tuesday. Good news here! The report showed an increase in consumer confidence with a score of 94.5. This was a nice jump from 89.0. All this good news had a positive effect on the markets as the Dow rose 187.81 points, or 1.12%, the Nasdaq gained 78.36 points, or 1.75%, and the S&P 500 closed up 23.42 points, or 1.19%. The 10-year yield rose 3 basis points to finish the day at 2.30%. Wednesday morning the Fed announced that QE3 was finished, done, over with! That was the only report that counted, and the markets reacted a bit, but nothing drastic. When the markets closed, the Dow was down 31.44 points, the Nasdaq closed at -15.07 points and the S&P 500 slipped slightly, closing at -2.75 points. The 10-year yield rose 4 basis points to end the day at 2.34%. On Thursday we had the usual reports on initial and continuing jobless figures, as well as the GDP report. Initial jobless claims came in at 287K -- 3000 more new claims than the week before. Continuing claims, those receiving unemployment benefits for a second or more weeks, also went up, and the results for the week ended October 18 came in at 2384K, compared with 2355K the prior report. The GDP report for Q3 was disappointing as the economy only grew 3.5%. This was better than had been forecasted but down from the 4.6% from the previous quarter. This news didn’t seem to affect the markets much, as all of the indices were up for the day. When the bell rang on Thursday, the Dow was up 221.11 points, or 1.30%, the Nasdaq rose 16.91 points, or 0.37% and the S&P 500 went up 12.35 points, or 0.62%. The 10-year yield dropped 2 basis points to close at 2.32%. Friday was a busy day in spite of it being Halloween. Lots of reports came out to end the month. The first report was on personal income for the month of September. Although it was up by 0.2%, that was less than the expected amount of 0.3%. Not a big deal. On the other hand, personal spending took a dip to -0.2%, after a +0.5% increase in August. So apparently the people who went out and spent some of their income in August took a breather in September. No surprise on the PCE report, which came in as expected for September and remained at 0.1%. The employment cost index for Q3 held at 0.7%. This has been constant for the last two quarters. The Chicago PMI had good news and reported an increase to 66.2 for October. This is up from the 60.5 reported for September. Finally, the month ended with the Michigan sentiment report for October. More good news, as the report inched up to 86.9 from 86.4. Though not earth-shaking, an increase in confidence is always a welcomed sign. The markets were happy last Friday, and all of the indices ended up. The Dow closed up 195.10 points, or 1.13%. Nasdaq closed up 64.60 points, or 1.41%, and the S&P 500 closed up 23.40 points, or 1.17%. The 10-year yield rose 3 basis points to close the week at 2.35%. According to the MBA, mortgage applications for the week ended October 24th decreased by 6.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous week. Refinance applications also decreased by 7% from the prior week. The refinance share of mortgage activity remained unchanged at 65% of total loan applications. The average contract for a conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased to 4.13% from 4.10%. Although Halloween is over, we have another scary week coming up, as there are 16 reports scheduled. Some of these reports are market movers, some aren’t. Today’s first report is the ISM index, a look at manufacturing in the U.S. during October. It had previously dipped to 55.7 from 56.6. That will be followed by the report on construction spending in September, which already made a good recovery from August, rising 0.7% vs. 0.8% the previous month. On Tuesday we get a peek at the trade balance, which had been edging down in an effort to reduce the $40.1B deficit. It was slowing a bit, but the last couple of months it has returned to its evil ways, and that is expected to continue. The next report is factory orders for September which are predicted to drop -0.5%; but that’s a lot better than the August report of -10.1%. Because the employment numbers come in on Thursday, the ADP employment change report for October will be released Wednesday, along with the October ISM index on the service sector. This is a far less important report than the manufacturing ISM. Neither one of these reports generally affect the markets much. On Thursday we have the initial and the continuing jobless claims reports. Thursday’s final report will be on Q3 productivity and unit labor costs. Last month the productivity level came in at 2.3%. The analysts are predicting this report to show only about 1.5%. The unit labor cost is expected to go up to 0.9% from the previous -0.1%. Friday is the biggie, with the unemployment report for October to be released. Unemployment dropped below 6.0% (actually it came in at 5.9%) in September for the first time since July, 2008. It is expected to stay about the same. Next up is the nonfarm payrolls report, and the analysts are divided about their predictions. Some believe the figure will come in at about 235K, while the other group is betting on 275K. The previous report indicated 248K jobs in the nonfarm payrolls. That wraps it up for this week.

By Appointment: 7150 E Camelback Rd., Ste 444 Scottsdale, AZ 85251 taum@marketlinemortgage.com www.marketlinemortgage.com P: 480-967-8286 C: 480-797-4898 TF: 877-967-8286 F: 866-699-1939 BK#0911893 NMLS#1842 #3950 OR LO#51267

Realtors' Lender of Choice!

Copyright 2008 The Daily Communicator